A surge in pulp prices is on the horizon—will the paper industry soon reap triple benefits?

Driven by the current cyclical boom, commodities such as non-ferrous metals and phosphate chemicals have shown positive trends. Even the previously weak paper-making industry has begun to attract more attention, with industry insiders noting that the sector is now sending out positive signals. In January and February of this year, domestic manufacturers of white-top cardboard and household paper collectively announced price increase plans: white-top cardboard prices were uniformly raised by 200 yuan per ton, while household paper prices were raised by 100 yuan per ton. The new prices took effect officially on March 1. Although spot prices for hardwood pulp in China have recently declined slightly, this round of price hikes by paper companies is primarily driven by the need to restore profitability and also to leave room for future pulp price increases.

According to a report by Cai Lian She on March 1, several insiders from listed paper companies said that the industry has yet to break free from intensifying intra-industry competition, and demand remains under pressure. Going forward, market trends will likely be driven more by other bulk commodities. Data from Zhuochuang Information showed that from February 20 to 26, prices for white cardstock, household paper, and cultural paper remained largely unchanged from the previous week, while coated duplex board prices saw a slight decline. Downstream sectors are still in the early stages of resuming production and operations. On February 28, 2026, Zhuochuang Information noted that trading in the cultural and printing paper market has been slowly recovering since the Spring Festival, and it is highly probable that large-scale paper mills will issue letters urging price increases in March, potentially driving a modest rise in market prices.

Industrial chain mapping:

In the upstream raw materials segment, China’s paper industry is highly dependent on imported pulp. From January to March this year, overseas pulp companies have continued to raise their quotations for hardwood pulp. If shipping cycles and price transmission remain normal, these price increases will be passed on to the domestic spot market within two months, and domestic hardwood pulp prices are expected to rise starting in March. Meanwhile, since raw materials such as pulp and equipment are primarily settled in U.S. dollars, fluctuations in the exchange rate directly affect paper companies’ procurement costs. As a core raw material for products like containerboard, waste paper prices have risen significantly since the second half of 2025, driven mainly by short-term supply tightness and adjustments in import policies. These fluctuations in raw material costs are directly impacting the production and operations of relevant paper companies.

In the midstream paper manufacturing segment, leading enterprises are reducing costs and stabilizing supply through integrated industrial-chain layouts. In fiscal year 2025, Jiulong Paper Industry added 2.5 million tons of paper production capacity and 2.35 million tons of wood pulp capacity. From the fourth quarter of 2026 to the first quarter of 2027, it will also bring into operation an additional 2 million tons of chemical pulp capacity, further perfecting its integrated pulp-and-paper layout. Sun Paper has established a forest plantation covering 460,000 hectares in Laos, adopting an integrated forest-pulp-paper model to continuously reduce raw material costs. Since February 2026, more than 30 leading paper companies have issued price increase notices, covering the three major product categories: cultural paper, white coated cardboard, and household paper. Leading cultural paper manufacturers have simultaneously announced plans for subsequent second-round price hikes. As a result, the industry’s operating rate has rebounded to over 75%, inventory levels continue to decline, and companies’ production rhythms are gradually returning to normal.

In the downstream application segment, demand for cultural paper is closely tied to the peak spring textbook bidding season, resulting in a noticeable rebound in order volumes. Demand for packaging paper is growing in tandem with the recovery of consumer spending; the expansion of the express delivery and logistics sectors, as well as the e-commerce industry, is driving higher demand for containerboard and corrugated paper. Household paper products continue to exhibit rigid demand, ensuring stable market conditions. Looking ahead, the nationwide implementation of the plastic ban will gradually unlock opportunities for paper packaging to replace plastic packaging. Meanwhile, special paper applications in emerging fields such as new energy, semiconductors, and healthcare are continually expanding, opening up new dimensions of growth for the industry.